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12/15/2008

The Internet 2020

Lee Ranie, Director of the Pew & Internet Life Project, sent me an email (like I assume many people were copied on) yesterday providing a heads up about the Pew latest report on the Future of Internet III. I've only taken a my first cursory glance over the summary and predictions, but what I really thought-provoking are some of the comments shared by leading experts and futurists...

"Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy. The Net will wear away institutions that have forgotten how to sound human."

"The world will get a nervous system, and that is a big deal."

"New methods of securing the true from the false will emerge. The source will become more important than the message."
"The internet is like graffiti, only it can be targeted to the right niche."

"Transportation will be refined through massive substitution of communication. The current flight to cities will be reversed."

"The greatest changes will occur in the arena of trust and human relations."

Here's a high level summary of the predictions and impact:

  • Some 77% said the mobile computing device (the smartphone) with more significant computing power will be 2020's primary global Internet-connection platform.
  • 64% favored the idea that 2020 user interfaces will offer advanced touch, talk and typing options and some added a fourth "T" - think.
  • Nearly four out of five respondents (78%) said the original Internet architecture will not be completely replaced by a next-generation 'net by 2020.
  • Three out of five respondents (60%) disagreed with the idea that legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies will exercise effective intellectual property control by 2020.
  • A majority—56%—agreed that in 2020 "few lines (will) divide professional from personal time, and that's OK."
  • 56% said while Web 2.0 is bringing some people closer, social tolerance will not be heightened by our new connections
  • 45% agreed and 44% disagreed with the notion that the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the Internet will heighten individual integrity and forgiveness.
  • More than half (55%) agreed that many lives will be touched in 2020 by virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality, while 45% disagreed or did not answer the question.

Oh, and if you have a prediction yourself to add, there's even a form for you to participate.

It's got me thinking ... how about you?

1 comment:

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